On September 11th 2023 I wrote Professor Sean Birkel form the Climate Change Institute a long email challenging him to do a parallel Test of a 20-Station Model of Antarctica, I had created and his Daily representation of the Average Temperature on Antarctica. What follows are some excerpts of that Email of 09/11/2023:

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"Based on the ideas form the AGU article you sent me:

Historical Reanalysis: What, How, and Why? - Slivinski - 2018 - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems - Wiley Online Library

"Reanalyses combine Observations with model forecasts to get the best view of the entire picture"

 

"Observations and model forecasts are combined using the same data assimilation methods used by weather centers"

I am going to attempt to come up with a Representative Observation Model for Antarctica, to augment the NOAA's "daily means that are calculated from eight 3-hourly CFS timeslices beginning at 0000 UTC" with Observations on the ground from Weather Centers to create that other Dataset (NOAA -Climate Reanalyzer), in this instant based on Data from the International Research/Weather Stations and the AWS systems."

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And

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"I have not had the time to see what the outcome of this Test would look like, but it will be an interesting experiment to see how the Reality on the Grounds holds up to the Model.

NOAA stated that "temperature in CFS should be evaluated against other Datasets", so this is an attempt to create a Representative Experimental Dataset for the Average Daily Temperature in the Antarctic Region

If there is any improvement you would like to suggest, or if there are important Stations that I have missed, please let me know, and I will adjust this Model accordingly.

Otherwise give me the list of Stations, that you think will give us a Dataset that will work to come up with a Representative Average Temperature in the Antarctic in order to augment the CFS/CFSR Model, and which Day to run it on this week, and I will go to work to gather the Data and email you the result.

An Exiting Experimental Project, I can't wait, to give it a try!"

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The Result of this email exchange was that Professor Birkel Ghosted me for a month, until I went over his head the Office of the University President and complained about being Ghosted. In the meantime, on September 12th, 2023, I started recording the Temperatures on Antarctica on a Daily basis, every day since, and the Graph above is the result of that record keeping. The Table below is the 20_station Model for April 06, 2024, the Coldest day so far, this year, with 3 of the 5 High Plateau Stations recording colder than -70 C.

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The 20 Station Model comes in at -35.06 C  The CCI Average Temperature for April 06, 2024 ,is -28.6 C - That is a difference of about 6.5 C too Warm!

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Around the beginning of the year the two Models were totally in sync for about a month, so what makes it diverge like this?

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