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The Data does tell Stories

On this Website, I want to highlight several Case Studies to show that what is presented in the Printed Media and on the Airwaves is not necessarily supported by the Data on the Ground.

A
fter a 25-year career in Data management for large US publishers such as Army Times Publishing/Gannett, where I implemented real world solutions based on real world Data (managing all aspects of distributing 250,000 magazines World-Wide 52 weeks out of the year - from a software re-write of an ancient COBOL program of the system to the actual weekly delivering of the magazines), I decided to take a look at what Data supports the "Climate Crisis" narrative we hear so much about, to satisfy my own curiosity about the subject, The more I look into it, the more nothing much adds up, as far as the reporting of Antarctica is Warming Faster than ever, my Data shows just the opposite. That is Strange, No? This is not what I expected to find!

My focus on Data gathering is actual on the ground observations as opposed to Satellite based data, which is what most all of the Media stories are based on. As you can see from the Satalite image below that actually only half of the area over the Oceans have data, for in this case Wind speed and direction, the rest gets interpreted by some Scientist (?) or Graphic Artist (?), who may have a Bias or not, but still ony 50% of it is covered, so what is the Error factor here? The Satalite is up 22,000 feet above the Earth and you expect accuracy from that and reliability? On top of that, the Data and it's interpretation can not easily be fact checked by the average person, so we must just trust the Scientists?

The question these days is how should we calibrate the data? Should we adjust the observations on the ground to match the satellite Data interpretations, or should we adjust the satellite data to match the observational Data on the ground. My opinion would be the latter!

(You can see in the image below that about half of the the over the Ocean area is White - that means there is no Data for that area the Satellite did not pass over that section of the Ocean, so it needs to be interpreted from the nearest ares that does have Data)

Wind Sattalites.png

Case # 1: The North Atlantic Heatwave of June 2023

Result: The Data supports the claim, the "Why"(?) of this event, is debatable.

The Story is on this Page further down.

Case # 2: The Antarctica Labor Day 2023 Extreme Cold Spell

Result: Large discrepancy between the Average Temperature on Antarctica by the Climate Change Institute from the University of Maine (the CCI) and my 20-Station Obsevation on the Ground Model (The CCI Temps are 10 to 15 C too Warm, during the Coldest Antarctica Winter Months (July and August) And almost ZERO discrepancy during the Antarctica Summertime (Dec & Jan) - how does that work? The CCI has refused to identify Stations on Antarctica that they are using to come up with their Average Temperature, I have asked for that many times! After confronting them for months via email discussions, the CCI eventually acknowledged BIAS on the Eastern Antarctic Section (See here: The Antarctica Case | Mysite (aaadts.com)). No changes were made however to really correct that issue. On Dec 09, 2023, the CCI changed from the CFS NOAA Model to the Copernicus ERA5 Model, which is supposed running a little bit colder, but the result is marginal and not noticeable.

The Antarctica Case | Mysite (aaadts.com)

Project # 1:  The Fuji Dome Temperature Trend 1995 - 2023

An Australian Environmental Scientist, interested in Antarctica, wants to do a long term Temperature Study on Stations on Antarctica's High Plateau. I volunteered to pull the Data for her from the AMRDC Depository at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.

The Scientist: Dr. Jennifer Marohasy from Australia.

Her Blog: 
Hot as Ice in the Antarctic, Global Temperatures this June - July - Jennifer Marohasy

The Project Page: Fuji Dome | Mysite (aaadts.com)

Case # 3:  The Byrd Case

Result: The proclaimed Warming of Western Antarctica and the resulting "Catastrophic" Sea Level Rise is not supported by the Data.
In 1980 the Average Temperature for the Month of August was -28.99 Celsius

In 2023 the Average Temperature for the Month of August was -45.54 Celsius (A Record Cold for that Station since 1957 recorded Data!)

An Academic Study pretty much underscoring this position:


TC - Change in Antarctic ice shelf area from 2009 to 2019 (copernicus.org)

The Byrd Station Case | Mysite (aaadts.com)

Case # 4:  The CCI Case (The Climate Change Institute of the University of Maine)

Result: A continuation of the Labor Day 2023 Case. In Peak Cold Wintertime Observational Temperatures are up to 14 C Colder than the CCI reporting average. Already in March and April, I am already seeing 4 - 5 C Colder Observational Temperatures and we are 4 Month away from Peak Cold.

Update 04/28/2024: The difference between Observation and the CCI Reporting of the Daily Antarctica Average is already up to 10 -12 C too Warm? What will Peak Cold (July/August) bring?


The CCI Case | Mysite (aaadts.com)

Case # 5: The Concordia Station getting Warmer Case?

The Telegraaf (a Dutch Newspaper) re-cycled the Concordia Heatwave Story of March 2022. First reportd in the WAPO (July 2023) and aso the Guardian (Google it)

Result, I debunked it again, this time with more Data from many years between 1997 - 2024.

FACT - CHECK: the Story is FALSE


Concordia Station | Mysite (aaadts.com)

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Follow my Posts on Lined in here: 
Activity | Frits Buningh | LinkedIn

First Podcast on the Stuart Turley Energy Beat from March 2024:


ENB # 199 Uncovering Antarctica: Inconsistencies in Climate Information - Are the sensors bad, or is the data being sensored? - Energy News Beat

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The June 2023 CAT-4 North Atlantic Heatwave off the Irish Coast

Guardian Intro.png

In June of 2023 this story captured my attention and being a bit skeptical minded, I decided to take a look at the underlying data, if I could find it to be so?

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What you need to know about the 'extreme' heatwave hitting our oceans – video explainer | Environment | The Guardian

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Science is based on Questioning? What has more weight? The Actual Daily Measurements from Buoys in the Water a few miles offshore from Belmullet Harbor, on the on the Far West side of Ireland in the exact same areas that the Guardian, CNN and WAPO paint Deep Maroon or Purple, or the Satellite measurements from 22,000 Miles up above, that are the basis of all those maroon and purple colors on those scary maps?

 

This will be my Science Experiment: Compare the data of several ARGO Floats with the data from Belmullet Harbor from May thru July Data available form 2020 - 2023. 

Belmullet Temperatures.png

Belmullet is the closest Harbor in Ireland with Sea Water Temperature records going back to 2020, so I'll use those to establish what the Average should be and then add the 5 Degree Celsius claim from the Gurdian Purple Designation ( 4C - 6C above average) to that Average and compare it to the Actual Measurements from ARGO Floats in that same area.  

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Water temperature in Belmullet in Atlantic Ocean now (seatemperature.net)

Belmullet Harbor.png

I found several ARGO Buoys of the Coast of Bellmullet - One Example # 7900529
ARGO Float 7900529 - Argo Fleet Monitoring (euro-argo.eu)

Bouy # 7900529.png

Heading 4

In Excel I tracked about 7 Buoys off the Coast of Western Ireland from May 01, 2023, through the end of August, the following Table is just a Section of that. In the Final Graph below I only used the Three Hottest Buoys.

Excel.jpg

According to the Data gathered from the Buoys, the Heatwave of June 2023 did Happen!

Graph June 2023.gif

The "WHY" of this Event Happening is Controversial

I will share my own opinion as to the "Why" of this event as a Sailor. Then I will highlight some of what I read in the Media and you can make up your own mind what you want to believe

Wind June 2023.png

Sligo is another Harbor on the Irish Coast. As you can see the wind from early June has bean steadily form the South pushing warm water up from the Coast of Africa and partly from the East as well. The Colder water is out to the West and North, so yeah it got warmer, that makes sense.

The next image is from the Port of Den Helder in the Netherlands. Rijkswaterstaat, the equivalent of NOAA maintains meticulous records on everything water related. As you can see from the Graph below, the Temperature ran up, just as in my Graph until about June 22nd, and then it went down just as fast, when the wind shifted from the South to the West (always Colder water out to the West & North)

Den HelderJune 2023.png

Now the "Doomsday Angles as to Why?

"Researchers from the University of Copenhagen’s Niels Bohr Institute used statistical modeling and over a century of ocean temperature data to predict that, under current greenhouse gas emissions, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) will collapse between 2025 and 2095."

The study notably goes further than the United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which predicted a weakening of AMOC but called a full collapse in the 21st century “very unlikely” in its most recent report.

Atlantic Ocean currents system could collapse this century from climate change: study | The Hill

The Collapse.png
Gloabl Boiling.png

Thehe Data 

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